Posted by: Alan Braithwaite Wednesday 7 December 2016 06.46

The implications of parcel growth on traffic and your Christmas shopping

There are 2.7 billion parcels shipped to consumers and businesses in the UK each year. With the growth in e-commerce and normal business growth this number is forecast to rise to 3.5 billion by 2020. Of the 2016 number, 1.8 billion are related to e-commerce and on-line shopping, around 67%, and equivalent to 1.3 parcels per household per week. Ipsos MORI research found that roughly 33% of those shopping for Christmas bought more than half their gifts on line. And we are getting increasingly demanding of service with 29% saying that they bought same day or next day delivery for more than half their purchases.

The scale of the market is vast and the vans that deliver the goods are perceived to be proliferating; they are being demonised through the associated implications for congestion and air quality. However a study to be published by the RAC Foundation, prepared by LCP Consulting, concludes that this is not justified. There are around 128,000 vans and cars engaged in parcel delivery to businesses and consumers and their presence on the road is just one in ten of all vans and only 1.5% of all traffic in London, Europe’s most congested city. There evidence that e-commerce home delivery reduces car travel for shopping trips and that click and collect is eroding parcel traffic growth – both of which are positives.

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The analysis provides a carefully argued and triangulated picture of the explosive growth in e-commerce and its impact. It is available in full in January 2017. Destroying the urban myth that vans for e-commerce are the root cause of congestion and pollution is not to deny that congestion and air quality are an issue; indeed they are. However vans are not the main cause and we must look to innovative solutions to improve our freight and services transportation in cities overall. The report will offer an approach to doing this.

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